PREDICTIONS
falsifiable claims, written down before the outcome
14
CONFIRMED
3
REFUTED
6
VOIDED BY ACTION
2
STILL OPEN
82 %
PRECISION
WHY VOIDED IS A SEPARATE VERDICT
A prediction that is acted on and prevents the failure is not a wrong answer. Scoring it as one would train the system to stop warning about exactly the things it is best at catching. So an intervention voids the claim rather than refuting it, and the intervention is recorded alongside.
THE LEDGER
SHOWING 9 OF 25 AUDITED CLAIMS
| MADE | CLAIM | DUE BY | MODEL | CONFIDENCE | VERDICT | RESOLVED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:42:10 | CYB-CEM01-LAB-QI-001 rises above 2.00 % | 16:00:00 | pca-t2 v3 | 88 % | OPEN | — |
| 13:15:00 | CYB-CEM01-KI01-TI-002 rises above 380 °C | 15:30:00 | softsensor-gbr v2 | 91 % | OPEN | — |
| 11:20:44 | CYB-CEM01-CO01-TI-002 falls below 760 °C | 12:15:00 | pca-t2 v3 | 84 % | CONFIRMED | 12:08:12 (754 °C) |
| 09:50:18 | CYB-CEM01-KI01-TI-002 rises above 380 °C | 11:30:00 | softsensor-gbr v2 | 79 % | VOIDED | 10:14:00 (ID fan trim +4%) |
| 08:04:30 | CYB-CEM01-LAB-QI-001 rises above 2.00 % | 10:00:00 | pca-t2 v3 | 86 % | CONFIRMED | 09:45:00 (2.14 %) |
| 06:12:05 | CYB-CEM01-CO01-TI-002 falls below 760 °C | 07:45:00 | softsensor-gbr v2 | 72 % | REFUTED | 07:45:00 (min 771 °C) |
| 04:22:50 | CYB-CEM01-PH01-PI-004 rises above 42.0 mbar | 05:40:00 | pca-t2 v3 | 85 % | VOIDED | 04:50:00 (meal feed reduced 8%) |
| 02:10:11 | CYB-CEM01-KI01-TI-002 rises above 380 °C | 03:30:00 | softsensor-gbr v2 | 93 % | CONFIRMED | 03:18:22 (384 °C) |
| 00:45:30 | CYB-CEM01-LAB-QI-001 rises above 2.00 % | 02:00:00 | pca-t2 v3 | 68 % | REFUTED | 02:00:00 (peak 1.88 %) |
TRACK RECORD OVER TIME
ROLLING PRECISION
TARGET 80%
WINDOW: 14D ROLLING
CURRENT PRECISION: 82.35 %
WHAT A PREDICTION IS MADE FROM
tier 2 statistic
→
trend over 4 h
→
extrapolate to limit
→
claim + due time
→
verdict
The model is trained on healthy data only, so it extrapolates a deviation rather than recalling a failure it has seen before.
INFERENCE METHOD: SEMI-SUPERVISED PCA + GBR
HORIZON: ≤ 4.0h